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We Are Just Recovering From the LIA
(Part of the How to Talk to a Climate Sceptic guide)
Objection:
The current warming is just a recovery from the Little Ice Age.
[UPDATE: Please see this guide entry.]
Answer:
This entry is on my ToDo list but for now I would just point to a post by Andrew Dressler that covers it nicely. In a nutshell this argument assumes some kind of natural level that the climate system automatically gravitates back to. Like almost all of the sceptic arguments, this one is inconsistent with many others, especially those trying to say nothing new here, the climate is always changing or the climate is chaotic.
Labels: Sceptic Guide
7 Comments:
At February 20, 2007 6:41 PM, Anonymous said…
In a sine-wave, there is a bottom, there is a middle, and there is a top.
Are you going to get anal about all 3?
At March 29, 2007 8:06 PM, Anonymous said…
Your agrument doesn't hold water at all. The Maunder Minimum is strongly believed to be the main cause of the LIA. The trend of low sun spot occurance can be clearly seen.
here
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/2/28/Sunspot_Numbers.png
So no [C02] jump = no recovery from LIA regardless of increase in the # of sun spots. Is that what you are saying?
At April 01, 2007 6:05 PM, coby said…
Anonymouse,
Please read the newer version of this guide entry:
http://illconsidered.blogspot.com/2006/12/we-are-just-recovering-from-lia.html
At July 28, 2007 3:55 PM, Anonymous said…
The Earth is an incredibly complex system. I think you even allude to that a little bit when you admit that there is not "some kind of natural level that the climate system automatically gravitates back to." In other words, there is no balance or equilibrium like Al Gore and other politicians and entertainers would have us think.
To boil all of climate science down to "carbon dioxide causes warming" is just plain stupid. There are so many factors in this very complex system that we may never really understand the whole picture.
And to just blow off the Sun's contribution and insist that our 3% contribution of atmospheric carbon dioxide is the sole culprit - and then to demand higher taxes and more control on industry! - begins to sound very fishy.
At August 03, 2007 8:56 AM, coby said…
You are confusing having no natural level at which to balance, with not being in balance. All evidence indicates that on the timescales that matter to humans (decades to millenia), absent some forcing or another, the climate system is in a balance. When you apply a perturbation such as changing insolation or altering GHG levels the climate system moves until a new balance is reached.
CO2 causes warming (absent other mitigating factors) is not plain stupid, it is a scientific certainty. The only outstanding question is how much CO2 causes how much warming.
I recommend you read my articles on "It's the Sun" and "Natural CO2 dwarfs human CO2"
At May 03, 2008 4:37 AM, Anonymous said…
Hmmmmmm.
Quote "The only outstanding question is how much CO2 causes how much warming."
Logically speaking, seeing we are being so strictly logical here, this little footnote may in fact turn out to be a REAL PROBLEM for Climate Change Advocates.
Tell you what: You figure out the "how much" question, then I can assess "how much" government intervention must be tolerated.
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