A Few Things Ill Considered

A layman's take on the science of Global Warming featuring a guide on How to Talk to a Climate Sceptic.

Sunday, October 22, 2006

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Another Week of GW News - October 22

Courtesy of H.E.Taylor, here is this week's GW news roundup

A study out of UCAR projects the extreme weather to come:


  • 2006/10/20: UCAR: (2.7meg pdf) Going to the Extremes
  • 2006/10/20: MSNBC: Models predict 'wild ride' of extreme weather - Greenhouse gases fueling the trend, federally funded study says
  • 2006/10/20: Yahoo: Global warming study predicts wild ride
  • 2006/10/20: NYT: Global Warming Study Predicts Wild Ride


    Or it could just be warmer & wetter:


  • 2006/10/20: TerraDaily: Expect A Warmer, Wetter World This Century
  • 2006/10/20: SciDaily: Expect A Warmer, Wetter World This Century, Computer Models Agree
  • 2006/10/19: UCAR: Expect a Warmer, Wetter World this Century, Computer Models Agree
  • 2006/10/18: PhysOrg: Very long-term forecast: [Pacific] Northwest winters will be even wetter


    That report on GW inaction costing trillions is here:


  • 2006/10/: FOE: (pdf) Climate Change - the Costs of Inaction
  • 2006/10/15: ClimateProgress: The Trillion-Dollar Cost of Climate Inaction


    The GRACE satellite has measured significant ice loss in Greenland:


  • 2006/10/20: BBC: Gravity satellites see ice loss - Greenland is currently losing about 100 billion tonnes of ice a year.
  • 2006/10/22: SciDaily: Greenland Ice Sheet On A Downward Slide
  • 2006/10/20: TerraDaily: Greenland Ice Sheet On A Downward Slide
  • 2006/10/20: PlanetArk: Greenland Ice Sheet Shrinking Fast - NASA
  • 2006/10/19: Eureka: Greenland ice sheet on a downward slide


    While in Antarctica:


  • 2006/10/22: Independent(UK): Cracking up: Ice turning to water, glaciers on the move - and a planet in peril
  • 2006/10/16: NSU: Warm winds of change hit the Antarctic - Break-up of ice sheet could be pinned on global warming
  • 2006/10/16: BAS: First direct evidence that human activity is linked to Antarctic Ice Shelf Collapse
  • 2006/10/16: ENS: Antarctic Ice Shelf [Larsen-B] Collapse Tied to Global Warming
  • 2006/10/16: Stoat: First direct evidence that human activity is linked to Antarctic Ice Shelf Collapse
  • 2006/10/16: Eureka: First direct evidence that human activity is linked to Antarctic Ice Shelf collapse
  • 2006/10/16: SciDaily: First Direct Evidence That Human Activity Is Linked To Antarctic Ice Shelf Collapse
  • 2006/10/16: CDreams: Reuters: Antarctic Ice Collapse Linked to Greenhouse Gases


    Phase-sensitive radar makes new metrics available:


  • 2006/10/16: Eureka: Radar opens new window into the ice for Antarctic scientists
  • 2006/10/16: SciDaily: [Phase-sensitive] Radar Opens New Window Into The Ice For Antarctic Scientists


    Temperature records are breaking:


  • 2006/10/18: Wunderground: Quiet tropics; the globe experiences its 4th warmest September on record
  • 2006/10/17: DeSmogBlog: UK heatwave hottest in 350 years


    Meanwhile in near earth orbit:


  • 2006/10/19: BBC: Metop weather satellite lifts off
  • 2006/10/19: ESA: Europe's new MetOp [A] weather satellite reaches polar orbit
  • 2006/10/16: BBC: Weather observer ready for flight
    Europe is set to launch its most sophisticated weather and climate satellite to date. The Metop spacecraft will be lofted into its 850km-high polar orbit by a Soyuz-Fregat vehicle from Kazakhstan.



  • The ozone hole is now of record size and depth:


  • 2006/10/20: ABC(Au): Antarctic ozone hole biggest on record: report
  • 2006/10/20: PlanetArk: Antarctic Ozone Hole Biggest on Record, US Reports
  • 2006/10/20: SciDaily: Antarctic Ozone Hole Is A Double Record Breaker
  • 2006/10/19: NASA: NASA and NOAA Announce Ozone Hole is a Double Record Breaker [area and depth]


    Here is a curious buglet:


  • 2006/10/20: SciDaily: Methane Devourer Discovered In The Arctic
  • 2006/10/18: TerraDaily: Munching Microbes Help Battle Against Global Warming
  • 2006/10/19: PlanetArk: Seabed Microbes Munch Methane, Curb Warming - Study
  • 2006/10/18: PhysOrg: [Methane] Munching microbes help battle against global warming


    Real Climate examines the cosmic ray hypothesis:


  • 2006/10/16: RealClimate: Taking Cosmic Rays for a spin [Svensmark]


    The impacts of GW are becoming clearer:


  • 2006/10/19: TruthOut: Refugees, Disease Big Risk From Global Warming
  • 2006/10/20: CDreams: Independent(UK): Climate Change 'Will Cause Refugee Crisis'
  • 2006/10/20: PlanetArk: Refugees, Disease Big Risk from Global Warming - UN


    And then there are the tropical rainforests:


  • 2006/10/20: Guardian(UK): Brazil to call for global fund to save rainforests and cut climate change


    The troubling matter of falling food production is not going away:


  • 2006/10/20: CDreams: IPS: Millions of Starving Shame the World, U.N. Says
  • 2006/10/15: TerraDaily: Drought Makes Wheat Prices Rocket On World Market


    And speaking of floods & droughts:


  • 2006/10/21: JFleck: Drought in Afghanistan
  • 2006/10/20: JFleck: Drought and Climate Change
  • 2006/10/20: BBC: Climate water threat to millions
    Climate change threatens supplies of water for millions of people in poorer countries, warns a new report from the Christian development agency Tearfund. Recent research suggests that by 2050, five times as much land is likely to be under "extreme" drought as now.

  • 2006/10/19: BBC: Australia's severe drought has led to an alarming rise in the number of suicides among farmers.
  • 2006/10/18: CBC: Irrigation up for debate: 'We need to take some of that water back'
  • 2006/10/18: JFleck: Pinyon and drought: some interesting details
  • 2006/10/17: TerraDaily: Australian Drought Driving Farmers To Desperation
  • 2006/10/16: TruthOut: [Kansas] Water Crisis Demands Attention
  • 2006/10/16: ABC(Au): Farmers urged to help reverse climate change [by the Climate Institute]
  • 2006/10/16: ABC(Au): Global warming intensifying drought patterns: CSIRO
  • 2006/10/16: PlanetArk: Australia's PM Says Drought Will Hit Growth
  • 2006/10/16: PlanetArk: Australia Battles Bushfires as Drought Scars Land
  • 2006/10/15: LJWorld: Water crisis demands attention
    In some areas of western Kansas, the [High Plains] aquifer [aka the Ogallala] has been sucked dry or is close to it, and farmers are shutting down wells.



  • John Fleck points out a cool tool to monitor snowpack:


  • 2006/10/21: JFleck: Google Earth Snotel


    Here is a new idea in mitigation:


  • 2006/10/21: CNN:FSB: Green chimney could save the planet
    A new power plant chimney that converts greenhouse gases into helpful substances could have a huge impact on global warming.



  • Elsewhere on the mitigation front:


  • 2006/10/14: Australian: Lightbulb giveaway is switched off
    A scheme to cut greenhouse gases by giving away millions of low-energy lightbulbs and shower heads has been shut down after households installed less than half of the products.

  • 2006/10/16: WorldChanging: Trees: The Anti-Desert


    Meanwhile in the journals:


  • 2006/10/17: PNAS: Predicted climate change alters the indirect effect of predators on an ecosystem process by Janet R. Lensing and David H. Wise


    In the "what do we do next?" department:


  • 2006/10/18: GCC: Vattenfall Proposes Global 100-Year Climate Stabilization Framework
    Speaking in Stockholm today at "Pathways to Sustainable European Energy Systems," the inaugural project conference of the Alliance for Global Sustainability, Vattenfall CEO Lars Josefsson proposed a worldwide, adaptive carbon reduction burden-sharing framework to be implemented over the next 100 years, as part of a path towards a low carbon emitting society.



  • And on the Kyoto-2 front:


  • 2006/10/18: PlanetArk: World Urgently Needs Post-Kyoto Climate Deal - UN


    Meanwhile on the emissions trading front:


  • 2006/10/22: DelawareOnline: Carbon trade abuse suspected - Loophole limits success of deal to cut emissions
  • 2006/10/20: PlanetArk: Japan Voluntary Emissions Scheme Sees First Trade
  • 2006/10/19: PlanetArk: Kyoto CO2 Trade not Ready for Formal Terms - Traders Investment bank Barclays Capital has sparked a debate on how greenhouse gas emissions are traded between rich and poor nations and how to account for the fact that key infrastructure is not yet in place.

  • 2006/10/18: PlanetArk: Carbon Market Needs Longer-Term Rules - Investors
  • 2006/10/18: PlanetArk: [Japanese] Carbon Trade Profit Limited by Lack of Big Projects
  • 2006/10/16: PlanetArk: Clocks Tick for CO2 Trade in Energy Business
    The Kyoto Protocol has sparked carbon emission markets into action but governments must adopt broader carbon rules quickly if trade is to snowball through the global energy business, the president of carbon asset management company Natsource LLC said in an interview.



  • And on the American political front:


  • 2006/10/20: CSW: A look at EPA's new climate change Web site, unveiled after 4 years of suppression
  • 2006/10/20: CSW: Briefly noted: Holdren interview, Northeast Climate Impacts, BBC Climate of Fear transcript


    This religion & environment stuff means there is an election coming:


  • 2006/10/19: WaPo: Evangelicals Broaden Their Moral Agenda
  • 2006/10/15: GristMill: Religion and environmentalism: A skeptic's view

    California has joined the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative [RGGI]:


  • 2006/10/17: TruthOut: California Joins Northeast Global Warming Fight
  • 2006/10/18: PlanetArk: California, US Northeast to Unite on Forming CO2 Market
  • 2006/10/16: Grist: California will join Northeast greenhouse-gas reduction program


    The Gore-apalooza is still bopping along:


  • 2006/10/19: Oikos: Become Al Gore! [Gore's upcoming Australian Inconvenient Truth training]
  • 2006/10/16: TreeHugger: Al Gore Wins a Quill Award for An Inconvenient Truth Book
  • 2006/10/16: PlanetArk: Gore's Movie Gets Raves in Berlin, Yawns in Bangkok


    Meanwhile in the UK:


  • 2006/10/16: BBC: UK 'must act' on plane emissions
    Britain will not be able to meet its goals on climate change without curbing the demand for air travel, according to an Oxford University report. The government is targeting a 60% cut in carbon dioxide emissions by 2050. But the report authors say the UK is becoming "air dependent" and government policies on increasing air travel contradict that stated aim.



  • And in Europe:


  • 2006/10/18: DeutscheWelle: Germany Puts Global Warming Prevention Plan in Gear German Environment Minister Sigmar Gabriel has warned of the unexpectedly fast pace of global warming and said the country needs to follow a unified plan to protect itself from increasing environment change.

  • 2006/10/19: BBC: EU sets 'ambitious' energy goals
    An action plan to cut Europe's energy consumption by 20% before 2020 has been outlined by the European Commission. More than 75 "ambitious" measures include tougher energy standards for electrical goods, a low-energy building strategy and more fuel efficient cars. Officials say the proposals will deliver an annual saving of 100bn euros (£67bn) and help the EU meet its Kyoto Protocol target to cut emissions by 8%. The plan will be considered on Friday by EU leaders at a meeting in Finland.

  • 2006/10/18: TreeHugger: Heating Up For Climate Realism: Europe Plots Design and Labeling Standards for Energy Efficiency
  • 2006/10/18: EurActiv: Eco-design requirements for energy-using products


    While in Australia:


  • 2006/10/22: ABC(Au): [Victorian Government] Vic 'not doing enough' to tackle climate change
  • 2006/10/19: ABC(Au): Greens urge climate change impact inquiry
  • 2006/10/20: ABC(Au): Australians want more action on climate change: survey


    And in Japan:


  • 2006/10/18: PlanetArk: Japan Wants to Avoid "Hot Air" CO2 Deals for Kyoto
  • 2006/10/18: PlanetArk: Japan's Kyoto Gap Widens as Emissions Rise [to 14.1% above the Kyoto target]


    In Canada, minority neocon PM Harper has continued doing nothing by announcing measures to take effect in 2025, 2050:


  • 2006/10/19: GC: Bill C-30 - Clean Air Act
  • 2006/10/22: TreeHugger: Lincoln, Churchill, JFK and Reagan on Canada's Clean Air Act
  • 2006/10/22: TStar: Bill signals Kyoto is dead for Canada - and so are unrealistic emission targets...
  • 2006/10/21: Globe&Mail: Unleash Canada's capitalist creativity on global warming
    The Tories are missing a huge opportunity. We need a federal government with a sense of urgency about the problem, the guts to act, and the commonsense recognition that government must play a major role in Canada's response. Instead, right now, we have a federal government with its head stuck in the tar sands.
  • 2006/10/21: DeSmogBlog: Canadian Tories Have Their Heads in the Tar Sands
  • 2006/10/21: ClimateArk: Canada: Reality emissions check: business wins, we don't
  • 2006/10/20: Grist: Hot Air Act - Canadian Clean Air Act meets icy reception
  • 2006/10/19: DeSmogBlog: Uh oh ... the NRSP is Praising Harper's Climate Change Bill
  • 2006/10/20: Yahoo: Canada sets new greenhouse gases reduction target for 2050
  • 2006/10/20: SPGCC: Canada's new greenhouse gas targets
  • 2006/10/20: TStar: Shameful delays in Clean Air Act
    Despite her upbeat introduction yesterday of the proposed federal Clean Air Act, Environment Minister Rona Ambrose could not hide the truly discouraging message itcontained. In effect, she told Canadians that Prime Minister Stephen Harper's government had no intention of even starting to take any real action to reduce airpollution or greenhouse gas emissions for at least the next 15 to 20 years.
  • 2006/10/20: TStar: Clean-air bill 'smog, mirrors': Critics - Mainly public relations ploy, opposition says - Bill contains no standards or reduction targets
  • 2006/10/20: Macleans: Clean Air Act appears doomed as opposition parties unite in anger
  • 2006/10/20: PlanetArk: Canada Won't Set Emissions Targets Before 2020/25
  • 2006/10/19: DeSmogBlog: No Room for Good Climate Policy in Tory Caucus
  • 2006/10/19: ClimateArk: No Canada Industry Emissions Cap until 2025 [Clean Air Act]
  • 2006/10/18: DeSmogBlog: CBC on Shwarzenegger and Canada's climate change conundrum
  • 2006/10/16: HillTimes: Ambrose not yet briefed on science of climate change: critics
    After nearly nine months in government, sources say Environment Minister Rona Ambrose has not received a departmental briefing on the science of climatechange, leading her critics to question how seriously the Conservative government approaches the issue.

  • 2006/10/17: DeSmogBlog: Canadian Bureaucrats Reported to be Resisting Climate Policy


    It would be funny of the Tories had to implement Kyoto this way:

  • 2006/10/18: CanWest: Opposition unites to breathe new life into Kyoto plan
    Opposition parties have tossed a wrench into the government's environmental agenda by fast-tracking a parliamentary committee review of a private member's bill that could force the Conservatives into implementing the Kyoto Protocol on climate change in Canada.



  • The idea of a carbon tax is still bouncing around:


  • 2006/10/20: EcoEcon: Greg Mankiw says Raise the Gax Tax

    How about a border tax?:


  • 2006/10/18: JQuiggin: Border taxes on CO2


    George Monbiot thinks carbon offsets are bogus:


  • 2006/10/18: OilChange: The Scam of Carbon-Offsets
  • 2006/10/18: Guardian(UK): Paying for our sins - Carbon offsetting makes us feel better, but does little good...


    And the difficult question of aviation & GHG production is in the air:


  • 2006/10/17: TruthOut: Curb Cheap Flights, Urge Climate Researchers
  • 2006/10/18: Guardian(UK): UK needs travel curbs, report says
  • 2006/10/17: Guardian(UK): Rock tours damaging environment, says Radiohead singer [Thom Yorke]
  • 2006/10/18: PlanetArk: Britain Must Cut Flights or Miss CO2 Targets - Study
  • 2006/10/16: CDreams: Independent(UK): Trouble in the Air: How Government Flights Pumped Out 1,000 Tons of Carbon Dioxide


    The movement toward ecologically based economics is glacial:


  • 2006/10/19: EcoEcon: Ecosystem Values: A first step in comparing Ecol Econ to Env Econ
  • 2006/10/16: EcoEcon: Economic Swan Dive


    Apocalypso anyone?:


  • 2006/10/18: TruthOut: How Close Is Runaway Climate Change?
  • 2006/10/16: PeakEnergy: Unholy Trinity [global warming, peak oil and water shortages] Set To Drag Us Into The Abyss
  • 2006/10/16: ClimateArk: Australia: Catastrophic threat to civilisation, expert [Dr Colin Butler] warns


    We have one "tipping point." Does anyone have a "perfect storm?" How about a "slippery slope?":


  • 2006/10/20: Guardian(UK): Blair warns of climate change 'tipping points'


    Yes we have no wacky weather, except:


  • 2006/10/22: Times(UK): It’s so warm plants think spring is here - Blossoms baffle gardeners
  • 2006/10/22: ClimateArk: It's a mad, mad, mad autumn - The longest period of hot weather since records began in 1659 has Britain's wildlife totally confused.


    As for how the media handles the science:


  • 2006/10/18: ClimateProgress: People who don't get it: Robert J. Samuelson
  • 2006/10/17: TP: Matt Drudge's Efforts To Cast Doubt on Global Warming Reaches New Level of Desperation


    Here is something for your library:


  • 2006/10/21: AZStarNet: Promise of solar energy already starting to shine [Book Review] _Solar Revolution: The Economic Transformation of the Global Energy Industry_ by Travis Bradford


    And for your film & video enjoyment:


  • 2006/10/21: THP: Reasons Why Everyone Must See _The Great Warming Conversation_ on November 3
  • 2006/10/16: GristMill: Behind the scenes: how [The Great Warming] a film on global warming got religion
  • 2006/10/16: GristMill: Another reason to watch the Weather Channel [Climate Code]


    Developing a new energy infrastructure is the fundamental challenge of the current generation:


  • 2006/10/22: PhysOrg: Power execs foresee carbon emission caps
  • 2006/10/21: TimesLeader: "Zero-energy" house is one family's dream home come true
  • 2006/10/19: GristMill: Solar dominance: inevitable?
  • 2006/10/18: ClimateProgress: Some Thoughts on Coal to Diesel
  • 2006/10/16: CDreams: AP: US Coal Plant Boom Poses Major Ecological, Economic Questions


    Advocating energy conservation in the WSJ?:


  • 2006/10/16: ClimateProgress: An Ultraviolet Moon Shines on the Wall Street Journal (energy conservation advocated)


    The reaction of business to climate change will be critical:


  • 2006/10/22: Guardian(UK): Business 'not adapting to climate'
  • 2006/10/22: CCTimes: Big corporations ready to battle global warming threat
  • 2006/10/21: JFleck: The Business Case [for greenhouse gas reductions]
  • 2006/10/19: GristMill: New Pew review: business strategies for climate change
  • 2006/10/19: PlanetArk: US Businesses See Greenhouse Laws by 2015 - Survey


    The carbon lobby are up to the usual:


  • 2006/10/21: JQuiggin: Exxon: We believe in global warming, so we shouldn't be criticised for funding global warming denialists
  • 2006/10/20: TP: Big Oil Companies Bankroll Deceptive California Campaign Against Alternative Energy
  • 2006/10/17: GristMill: Inhofe Alert!
  • 2006/10/18: DeSmogBlog: How to Make Big Coal Look Good on Global Warming
  • 2006/10/16: BSD: Volokh Correction #14 and a Prometheus Correction
  • 2006/10/15: DeSmogBlog: NRSP: "Scientists" Who Hate Science Journals
  • 2006/10/15: DeSmogBlog: Debating the Royal Society's Public Intervention
  • 2006/10/16: HNN: Global Warming: How History Is Being Manipulated to Undermine Calls for Action


    Andrew Dessler has been dissecting various misleading arguments:


  • 2006/10/16: SPGCC: The puzzle analogy [uncertainty argument]


    It seems some in the carbon lobby do not like the term "denial."

    Luckily I have been collecting alternatives: "Septics, greenhouse mafia, permanently uninformed, fossil fools, climate contrarian, biostitutes or the slick 60 climate change denial gang" would all serve:
  • 2006/10/18: AFTIC: The New Denialism
  • 2006/10/15: ERabett: Meta-Denial...


    There are a couple of older stories still reverberating through the media echo chamber:


  • 2006/10/16: TerraDaily: Marine Life Stirs Ocean Enough To Affect Climate


    Then there was the usual news and commentary:


  • 2006/10/18: Guardian(UK): Siberian fires 'could spark UK heatwaves'
  • 2006/10/18: ERabett: A modest proposal
  • 2006/10/19: DeSmogBlog: Leo [DiCaprio] Joins the Crusade
  • 2006/10/17: DeSmogBlog: Google Guidance Extends to Climate Friendly Corporate Behavior
  • 2006/10/17: SPGCC: Values in the climate change debate
  • 2006/10/18: PlanetArk: Himalayan Glaciers Resist Melting - Chinese Scientist [Zhang Wenjing]
  • 2006/10/06: DailyKos: It's official: climate change changes everything
  • 2006/10/16: WorldChanging: A Flurry of Climate Reports
  • 2006/10/16: Eureka: Learning to live with oxygen on early Earth [2.72 bya]
  • 2006/10/16: PlanetArk: Haze-Hit Countries Meeting Ends Without Detailed Plan


    And here are a couple of sites you may find interesting and/or useful:


  • CBC: Kyoto and beyond - Kyoto Protocol FAQs
  • The Great Warming [film promo site]
  • NOAA: Paleotempestology Resource Center
  • Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
  • World Radiation Centre
  • NGDC.NOAA: Solar Irradiance Data
  • Exxpose Exxon
  • SciAmP: SciAm Perspectives
  • CS: Climate Science
  • IPCC: National Greenhouse Gas Inventories Programme
  • UNFCCC: Greenhouse Gas Inventory Database
  • GEOSS: Global Earth Observation System of Systems
  • GristMill
  • CarboEurope
  • CCI: Climate Change Institute

    --regards--
    -het

    PS. You can access the previous postings of this series here.

    --
    "The climate system has enormous momentum, as does the economic system that emits so much carbon dioxide. Like a supertanker, which has to turn off its engines 25 km before it comes to a stop, we have to start turning off greenhouse gas emissions now in order to avoid catastrophe in decades to come."
    -Dr. Frank Ackerman

    Global Warming: http://www.autobahn.mb.ca/~het/enviro/globalwarming.html
    GW News: http://www.autobahn.mb.ca/~het/enviro/gwnews.html
    GW News Archive: http://www.autobahn.mb.ca/~het/enviro/gwna.html
    H.E. Taylor http://www.autobahn.mb.ca/~het/
  • Labels:

    11 Comments:

    • At October 22, 2006 10:00 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

      What's the purpose of this massive data dump, coby?

      And why, since you are posting so many links, have you consciously omitted one of the most dramatic, and startling developments of recent GW science?

      "Recent Cooling of the Upper Ocean"
      http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2006/2006GL027033.shtml

      If you are going to post recent GW developments, it is more honest to include ALL of the pertinent research.

      - Paul G.

       
    • At October 22, 2006 10:51 PM, Blogger coby said…

      Hi Paul,

      This is compiled weekly by H.E.Taylor. The purpose is to provide a resource for topical developments of the week. I found it to be one feature of sci.environment that I missed and thought useful so requested his permission to reproduce it here weekly.

      I don't think the very short term cooling observed was dramatic or startling, surprising I would grant you. It is very short term trend, don't make too much of it.

      But as for why it is not in this list that's because it is month old news! HET did indeed include news of that study when it came out on Sept 21 as you can verify in the archive links at the bottom of the post.

       
    • At October 22, 2006 11:11 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

      Re: Paul G.'s comment:

      Did you read the article or the abstract? Did you notice that the cooling was for the period 2003 to 2005, a period with a very high number of tropical cyclones, at least in the Atlantic Ocean?

      Did you ever stop to think that these tropical cyclones require an immense amount of heat from the oceans to form? Did you ever realise that this is not the result of global cooling or the lack of global warming, but an increased number of tropical cyclones likely as a result of global warming?

      -Stephen Berg

       
    • At October 23, 2006 6:05 AM, Blogger Acteon said…

      When will people learn the difference between short term changes and long term trends or climate as we like to call it...

       
    • At October 23, 2006 12:18 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

      OK, thanks coby, but it does advance my belief that environmentalists are the ultimate pessimists. ;)

      ===============================

      ==== Stephen Berg said: ====
      Did you ever stop to think that these tropical cyclones require an immense amount of heat from the oceans to form? Did you ever realise that this is not the result of global cooling or the lack of global warming, but an increased number of tropical cyclones likely as a result of global warming?

      ============================

      I don't understand what you are attempting to say Stephen. At present, there is no well accepted explanation for this sudden, and dramatic cooling of the oceans.

      And the heat loss, if this study holds up, was massive, especially considering it is over a short time frame. And that raises the critical question of why none of the GW models predicted, or anticipated this sudden cooling.

      - Paul G.
      =================================

      ==== acteon said: ===

      When will people learn the difference between short term changes and long term trends or climate as we like to call it...

      =====================

      That too is avoiding the question acteon. The oceans are massive stores of heat. And the oceans shedded a massive amount of heat in the last few years. Where did it go?
      And if the oceans shed this heat on a semi-regular basis, it will have huge implications for current GW models.

      As for short term and long term, last years hurricanes were propagandized as evidence of GW. And this years lack of serious hurricanses is evidence of what?? The enviros have me confused on this subject.

      - Paul G.

       
    • At October 23, 2006 12:37 PM, Blogger coby said…

      Well, I won't attempt to defend environmentalists from the charge of pessimism, BUT I would like to note that "everything is fine!" just doesn't seem to qualify as news!

      But about the cooling upper ocean, I took Stephen's comment to be referring to the fact that cyclones funtion as gigantic heat engines that draw heat from the upper ocean, so perhaps the ultimate effect of highly active cyclone seasons is a cooler SST. I don't know, and I believe you are crrect that thee is no explanation ATM.

      I think the long term trend is very well established and is one hundred+ years long. A two year cooling is just not enough to indicate anything significant has changed. It is also well within the scope of interannual variability (aka weather) and thus it is not to be expected that a GCM would predict it.

      Re hurricanes: you are right that a single season (active like last year, or quiet like this year - atlantic anyway) does not prove or disprove anything about trends.

       
    • At October 23, 2006 1:51 PM, Blogger Acteon said…

      I am an environmentalist. As in, I make my living as an environmental engineer. I know there are plenty of alarmists out there. However, for me personally it is about being an optimistic realist. Yes, there are many problems and many great problems. Yet, they can all be solved. And after we have solved them we are usually better of than before. Both economically and socially.

      I find most people very willing to do something and I find most companies very willing to do something. But first they need to understand what they can do and, quite often, how easy it is to do...

       
    • At October 23, 2006 4:27 PM, Anonymous Gareth said…

      Coby,

      Can I just say that your republishing of these digests is a wonderful resource?

      Ta.

       
    • At October 23, 2006 7:30 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

      Cody, your explanation exactly states my premise:

      "But about the cooling upper ocean, I took Stephen's comment to be referring to the fact that cyclones funtion as gigantic heat engines that draw heat from the upper ocean, so perhaps the ultimate effect of highly active cyclone seasons is a cooler SST."

      As for the rest of your post, it is spot on!

      Great work on this thread, Coby!

      -Stephen Berg

       
    • At October 24, 2006 7:26 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

      Re: "Cody, your explanation exactly states my premise:", it should read Coby. Sorry about that!

      -Stephen Berg

       
    • At October 24, 2006 9:05 PM, Blogger coby said…

      Please, don't worry about it! (You got it right the second time anyway)

      I've been called Cody plenty of times, and Cory and Colby and Toby! Also was called Doby for an entire summer once, though that was by a three year old!

       

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