A Few Things Ill Considered

A layman's take on the science of Global Warming featuring a guide on How to Talk to a Climate Sceptic.

Wednesday, August 08, 2007

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An Easy 100,000 Dollars?

... or a fool and their 15$ parted?

I see via Deltoid that JunkScience is offering $100,000US for anyone who can prove the theory of Anthropogenic Global Warming. The problems?
  • there is no such thing as proof in these kinds of scientific theories
  • JunkScience explicitly states they are the sole and subjective arbiter of all terms and conclusions
  • they want proof of the difference in global social, economic and environmental effects between two possible futures 100 years away!
I don't think they even take themselves seriously, it is just a cheap way to provide another shallow talking point.

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Monday, July 16, 2007

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Climate Chaos Labrats

What if the world were a cage of lab rats and GHG emmissions an accumulation of fecal matter? Blogger ThrobGoblin lays it all out for you here.




This is one of 13 panels that tell the whole amusing story!

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Friday, July 13, 2007

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Real Science Journalism

(via fellow Vancouverites DesmogBlog)

Tony Jones does an excellent job of exposing the fraud that is Albert Einstein....er, I mean Martin Durkin (I always get those two mixed up!), the producer of The Great Global Warming Swindle. You can watch his entire interview on YouTube in two parts, embedded below.

Suffice it to say, you won't ever hear this kind of reality based journalism on US mainstream news programs.



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Wednesday, July 11, 2007

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If there were any sharks left to jump

If there were any sharks left for Bob Carter to jump, he would have jumped them with this article on fellow climate ostrich Jennifer Marohasy's blog. Like most of the denialist campaign, he no longer even pretends to argue the science, (because of course every last word of the IPCC reports has been completely demolished so many times before, right?) merely verbally masterbates about what a buffoon Al Gore is, how the mindless flocks of human sheep tremble and how the oh-so-powerful and rich climate scientists manipulate all of us.

Nothing new or noteworthy, really. But the punchline is worth the multiple showers you'll want after reading it all, because he actually places Martin Durkin in the same company as "Charles Darwin, Wilhelm Roentgen, Marie Curie, Albert Einstein, Robin Warren-Barry Marshall and their like". Martin Durkin an Albert Einstein.

I kid you not!

More irrefutable proof that this man has nothing to say you could not fabricate.

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Thursday, June 14, 2007

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Just in Case There was any Doubt....

Just in case you thought that E. G. Beck actually has any integrity...

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Wednesday, June 13, 2007

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Monbiot's Final Response to Alexander Cockburn

George Monbiot calls it quits with a final response in his ongoing debate with Alexander Cockburn. Cockburn finally produced his "references" and of course it is not scientific publication, it is the usual frequently debunked bunk. It is also completely devoid of logical argument and is instead a laudry list of opinion from the usual suspects.

The whole exchange is archived here.

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Thursday, May 31, 2007

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Dramatic and Emphatic National Academies Statement

Michael Tobis has been stamping his feet quite a bit since a few days ago about the recent publication of a new Joint Statement of the National Academies [PDF] of all the G8 countries.

Why? Because it is both emphatic in nature and invisible to the press. He highlights these four points:
  • "Our present energy course is not sustainable."
  • "Responding to this demand while minimizing further climate change will need all the determination and ingenuity we can muster."
  • "The problem is not yet insoluble but becomes more difficult with each passing day."
  • "G8 countries bear a special responsibility for the current high level of energy consumption and the associated climate change. Newly industrialized countries will share this responsibility in the future."
It is hard not to see it as an urgent call to action (these are scientists, remember) so Tobis wonders out loud why no one seems to be talking about it. Good question.

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Wednesday, May 30, 2007

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Climate Response Blog

For anyone interested in some live blogging on the climate change issue or anyone in the London scene, there was this comment from Rohit Bhargava at the Climate Response Blog.

You might also be interested in a live blog happening around now around the Corporate Climate Response event in london. The Climate Response Blog is an ongoing real time conversation from an event that is part of the Green Power conferences. Throughout the day we are blogging, posting video interviews, and updating a photo gallery of participants and conversations.

They'd love your comments on this effort.

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Tuesday, May 29, 2007

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More Bunk from Beck

(no, this is not about me!)

Over at Real Climate they have a debunking of another whooper from E. G. Beck. Just as he did with his ludicrous CO2 reconstruction, Beck tries to take science forward by putting the gears in reverse (is this really what a modern day Galileo would do?).

But even better than that, he apparently has to resort to good old fashioned fraud too. Read the details.

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Tuesday, May 22, 2007

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Reasic debunks Crichton's "Aliens Cause Global Warming" Speech

In case anyone out there actually thinks Michael Crichton has intelligent things to say about the Global Warming issue, I recommend reading Reasic's recent post that steps through Crichton's many assinine arguments presented in a speech from a few years ago.

It is pretty long, but such an effort should at least be skimmed through!

Thanks for the good work, Reasic.

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Sunday, April 08, 2007

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Don't get behind!

Michael Tobis has been busy with 10 posts in the last 4 days. Don't get too far behind!

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Thursday, April 05, 2007

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Hot times in the Solar System

There is an interesting and entertaining column by Oliver Morton on Nature's news website about the continuing use by climate science contrarians of climate change on other bodies in the solar system. I have a couple of "Talk to a Sceptic" guide entries on that (see here for the newest version of the Mars and Pluto canard) as well as some artwork that takes its inspiration from on of the more obscure versions of this talking point.

Oliver Morton's article is full of great lines and clear rebuttals and methodically goes planetoid by planetoid showing the lack of substance "skeptics" so readily embrace. For example:
  • Pluto is still warming from its ~80 year summer
  • Triton's warming southern hemisphere is just in its hottest orbital position
  • Mars is experiencing changing albedo, probably due to dust storms

He also make the very good point that given "climate is always changing", in any random look around our solar system you should expect to find a handful of warming climates.

For his conclusion he writes:

What's saddening is that people should miss what these various phenomena really have in common — their explicability. They show that our ideas of atmospheric physics are applicable and useful on bodies that range from the tiny (Pluto, the atmosphere of which is hardly worth mentioning) to the gigantic (Jupiter, the atmosphere of which outweighs a hundred solid Earths).

And computer models based on the ones used to study the climate on Earth provide results even when applied to the hugely different conditions on Mars. That is truly impressive.

So what these disparate observations actually tell us is that the scientific community — the scientific community that enjoys a firm consensus on the causes of Earthly climatic change — has a fairly impressive grasp of the fundamentals of how weather works elsewhere, as well. It's a rather inspiring insight. But it is not the lesson that climate sceptics want their readers to learn.

Word.

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Wednesday, April 04, 2007

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Why Truth is Losing Ground

Micheal Tobis has a blog now (well, an active one now!) and he has a thoughtful article on truth and the perception of truth here.

Like almost everything he writes, it is well worth reading and I am glad to see him placing his considered essays somewhere more prominent than comment #83 on a marginally related RealClimate post!

I will add In It For the Gold to the sidebar shortly...

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Sunday, March 11, 2007

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Swindled

RealClimate explains why UK TV Channel Four's recent "documentary" "The Great Global Warming Swindle" is actually self describing in its title, rather like the Junk Science website. For a revolting glimpse into how they get scientific voices to support their falsehoods read a letter to the station from one of their scientist interviewees. Money quote here:
Never before, however, have I had an experience like this one. My appearance in the "Global Warming Swindle" is deeply embarrasing, and my professional reputation has been damaged. I was duped

Sad, really. Reminds me of one of the "60 climate scientists" who signed that letter to the PM of Canada, he too said he was duped.

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Wednesday, February 14, 2007

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Putting pop-culture to good uses

RealClimate has an excellent post today on the differences between studying today's climate versus paleoclimate research. They make a very nice use of some pop-culture, specifically CSI and Cold Case, two crime scene investigation dramas. It relates to a couple of articles in the Guide here:
Go have a look, it is one of their more accessible pieces, no technical know-how required, no brain straining equations to parse!

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Monday, February 12, 2007

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Another week of GW news - February 11, 2007

Courtesy of H.E.Taylor, here is this week's GW news roundup
(skip to bottom)

Let's start with a chuckle:

Some late IPCC commentary:

Click here to read more

Norway has released the design of that doomsday seed vault in the Arctic:

Virgin Airline's Richard Branson announced a $25m reward to save Earth:

The Greenland melt sped up, and then slowed down to normal, confusing some:

I am glad CH4 levels are currently stable, but...:

In the hurricane wars:

It's getting warmer:

Meanwhile on the el Niño front:

More GW impacts are being seen:

And then there are the tropical/boreal forests:

Yes we have no wacky weather, except:

And speaking of floods & droughts:

The conflict between biofuel and food persists:

Elsewhere on the mitigation front:

And on the carbon sequestration front:

While on the adaptation front:

Meanwhile in the journals:

Before we get into politics, there was some science done:

William had some fun with Svensmark:

The Pielke Fan Club is doing just tickity-boo:

Not much followup to Chirac's proposal for a new UN agency:

  • 2007/02/07: PlanetArk: French Climate Plan May be Distraction - UN Official
    Yvo de Boer, head of the UN Climate Change Secretariat, said a study last week by leading scientists blaming human activities for global warming should spur governments to curb greenhouse gas emissions. "The main priority is for political leaders to start coming to grips" with global warming, he told Reuters after a 46-nation appeal led by French President Jacques Chirac on Friday to create a new, powerful UN Environmental Organisation.

Yet another meeting is scheduled:

Meanwhile on the emissions trading front:

The idea of a carbon tax is still bouncing around:

That EU carbon tax proposed to bring the US around is raising questions:

While on the American political front:

After the speeches, several people have taken a look at what is actually in the budget:

The WhiteHouse released an open letter on climate change:

Is there a prize for ignorance?

We have House & Senate Committees galore:

The Gore-apalooza is still bopping along:

Meanwhile in the UK:

Meanwhile in Europe:

A tussle between EU car manufacturers and the Environment Commission regarding allowable emissions of CO2 played out this week:

Meanwhile in Australia:

An Australian carbon trading system is being debated:

Meanwhile in China:

A couple of the BRIC nations told the west to butt out:

It is significant that in the last 6 months in Canada, Great Britain,

and Australia, the political parties are falling all over themselves

trying to convince voters how green they are.

In Canada, the average lifetime of a minority government is 17 months or so, and as the Conservatives pass 13 months, the rumours of elections are hot and heavy with a bevy of green issues in the air:

While carbon trading, a carbon tax and a regulatory system battle for PR traction in the neocon perception of the public mind, the specific issue of the Alberta oil sands looms:

And minority neocon PM Harper continues his inaction:

How to choose between the various GHG reduction strategies:

As for how the media handles the science of climatology:

The power of the right-wing-media-machine is amply demonstrated:

The issue of how climate change is framed has arisen:

Here is something for your library:

Developing a new energy infrastructure is the fundamental challenge of the current generation:

The reaction of business to climate change will be critical:

The carbon lobby are up to the usual:

The AEI/AR4 imbroglio came in for some late commentary:

Exxon gets the attention it deserves:

Then there was the usual news and commentary:

And here are a couple of sites you may find interesting and/or useful:

--regards--

-het

PS. You can access the previous postings of this series here

--
"The scientific debate is over. It now becomes an economic and political debate over how to deal with the problem of global warming."
-Spencer Weart, director of AIP's Center for History of Physics

Global Warming: http://www.autobahn.mb.ca/~het/enviro/globalwarming.html
GW News: http://www.autobahn.mb.ca/~het/enviro/gwnews.html
GW News Archive: http://www.autobahn.mb.ca/~het/enviro/gwna.html
H.E. Taylor http://www.autobahn.mb.ca/~het/

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Thursday, January 25, 2007

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Policy advocate, or human being?

Roger Pielke Jr has another posting complaing about how the IPCC is not policy neutral despite its stated objectives, and therefore not an "honest broker" of the science of climate change. He offers this quote as support:
I hope this [forthcoming IPCC] report will shock people, governments into taking more serious action as you really can't get a more authentic and a more credible piece of scientific work.

from Rajendra Pachauri, the IPCC director.

I commented over there that his accusations of some sort of hypocrisy rest entirely on the assumption that everyone shares his definitions and I do not think that most people consider statements like "we should take serious action" to be advocating a policy at all.

Quite rightly Roger asked me how I would define "policy neutral". So, because I wrote a lengthy reply to that and would like to keep it handy, I thought I would reproduce it here. ("You" refers to Roger, of course)

I daresay "policy neutral" is one of those concepts where the only possible comprehensive definitions for it in its most abstract meaning render it a useless term. That is to say, the purest definition - having no preferences for any policy over any other and even no preference for any goals or set of goals over any other - is one that no living breathing human being could conceivably subscribe to. It requires having no values, no aspirations, no ethics.

So to avoid defining such a term out of a useful existence, policy neutral can only have meaning within a specific context. For example, if you are sitting at a meeting and there are five proposed policy options on the table and you have no preference of one over any other, you are policy neutral within this context.Now, of coures, the five that were on the table must have come from somewhere, but to be policy neutral, and human, you must already be looking at a limited set of options.

So let me try to bring this into its specific context here. I believe that one can be policy neutral even though they believe that climate change is an urgent problem that needs to be dealt with. Someone could be policy neutral because they have no particular convictions about how addressing climate change should be done: nuclear energy, CO2 sequestration, drastic lifestyle changes, combinations of approaches, etc.

I believe that I am not alone in thinking this way, and in fact it is you who need to "come to grips" with what others mean by policy neutral. The way you have defined and use this term (I have no doubt that it is consistent with your field's usage btw) means that the simple desire to avoid large scale human suffering makes you a policy advocate.

This is really splitting semantic horsehairs while the fossil fuels burn.


I am sure I will be following up on that over there...

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Saturday, January 20, 2007

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Who said this?

"TV weathermen are truly the last of the independent scientists"

If you know whose pearl of wisdom that is, then I don't need to tell you about the current firestorm in the climate blog world. Eli Rabbet has a detailed timeline with all the links. I first heard of it here at Prometheus but some details seem a little different from the story Andrew Dessler tells. In short, a blogger at the Weather Channel says weather men who share there willful ignorance of climate change science ("it's not real", "it's natural", "the UN wants to take over the world") should maybe have their American Meteorlogical Society credentials revoked. She makes the reasonable point that they are in a position of authority because they have been granted these credentials and should not abuse that responsibility. Mark Morano and Rush Limbaugh sick their attack dogs on her and the post is instantly flooded with some 1600 cantankerous comments!

I only posted about it because I found the quote above to be rather hilarious. This does not mean I have any inherent direspect for meteorologists in general or TV weathermen in particular, but please! "Truly the last of the independent scientists??" C'mon!

(Oh, BTW, the answer is Mark Marano.)

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Thursday, January 04, 2007

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Andrew Revkin's latest

As anyone who circulates anywhere in the climate blogosphere is undoubtedly aware, Andy Revkin wrote a piece in the NYT (non-subscription link!) very recently about a "new middle ground" in the climate debate. The main point being this is a refreshing and new voice of reason between two irrational extremes ("we will all die", versus "warming? what warming?"). Since I am so slow off the mark to bring it up, much of what I might have said has been already. So in brief, with acknowledgments to those who beat me too it, are some thoughts, in no particular order:
  • Real Climate did a post which is a good starting point and with which I pretty completely concur. The middle ground is the IPCC consensus, very few serious scientific voices have strayed from it.
  • I am very grateful to all the excellent work Andy Revkin has contributed to the otherwise poor showing from the main stream media on this issue. The NYT in general deserves some acknowledgment as well. The only weakness of this article is probably from the need to make a newsworthy event out of a slow general trend. It is also on shaky grounds because it really the media reporting on itself. The media shapes the debate much more than does the reality of the issues, so how to now report on the debate changing its character?
  • the phrase "non-skeptic heretic" is unfortunate and definately not climate debate neutral, as I said in comment #3 on Roger Pielke Jr.'s blog.
  • David Roberts is pretty much right on the money WRT his comments about RP Jr, in my opinion. Coining this phrase was more self-serving and/or self-flattering than anything else. He is however too hard on Revkin who is deeply inside of a fatally flawed system.
  • Andrew Dessler makes an important point about the distinction between the political debate and the scientific debate. This distinction, or rather the lack of keeping it in mind, muddies much of many of the discussions of this article and its issues.
  • James Annan makes the tongue-in-cheek point that since everyone else is slightly off to one side or another from him, he is in fact in the middle. The serious point being that dividing a spectrum of opinion and values into boxes, especially just three (too hard, too soft, just right!) is not the Path to Enlightenment.
  • The whole notion of a two-sided debate (from which this "reasonable" middle ground then emerges) is an artifact of the mainstream media's misguided notion of balance. (h/t to Bob Ward on RC)
  • There is no moral equivalence between the exagerations of the "alarmists" and the obfuscations and distractions of the denialists, so again the notion of "middle" is inappropriate. David Roberts makes this point in another RC comment.

I did not read these other blog threads, but they are there and surely interesting: Tim Lambert, Matthew Nesbit, Chris Mooney and John Fleck

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