A Few Things Ill Considered

A layman's take on the science of Global Warming featuring a guide on How to Talk to a Climate Sceptic.

Thursday, September 27, 2007

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Illconsidered on Science Blogs

Just a quick update to my farewell post to note that the new RSS feed is working now and A Few Things Ill Considered is properly integrated in the Science Blogs site.

I have a few posts up already, nothing too substantial yet, and the first installment of "A Week of Global Warming News" from HET is in place.

See you all over there!

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Thursday, September 20, 2007

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Farewell Blogger

This posting is my last here on blogger, A Few Things Ill Considered has moved over to Science Blogs. I am very excitied about the move and pleased to be in the company of such notables as Tim Lambert, William Connolley and Chris Mooney, and many other quality bloggers that I don't yet read regularily.

The new URL is http://scienceblogs.com/illconsidered and the RSS feed can be found here, please update bookmarks, subscriptions and blogrolls accordingly.

A Few Things Ill Considered began in January of 2006 and to date has had over 218 thousand visitors and 550 thousand page views. I am grateful and flattered for all this readership. I know it has been quiet recently but I am stepping things up now at the new location. My first introductory post is here.

Science Blogs is holding a contest for the 500,000th comment which is very near, so why not drop by, say hello and win a prize?

See you there!

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Wednesday, May 30, 2007

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Climate Response Blog

For anyone interested in some live blogging on the climate change issue or anyone in the London scene, there was this comment from Rohit Bhargava at the Climate Response Blog.

You might also be interested in a live blog happening around now around the Corporate Climate Response event in london. The Climate Response Blog is an ongoing real time conversation from an event that is part of the Green Power conferences. Throughout the day we are blogging, posting video interviews, and updating a photo gallery of participants and conversations.

They'd love your comments on this effort.

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Friday, May 11, 2007

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1000 Green Logos

I received an email from a fellow Canadian who is a student and green activist. He has just started a project to collect 1000 business logos of companies who are taking environmentally friendly initiatives.

You can see the 5 collected so far here, 995 to go! Anybody aware of any appropriate companies who might like credit where it is due should let them know. Contact info is available at the site.

Best of luck, Mike!

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Wednesday, April 04, 2007

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Why Truth is Losing Ground

Micheal Tobis has a blog now (well, an active one now!) and he has a thoughtful article on truth and the perception of truth here.

Like almost everything he writes, it is well worth reading and I am glad to see him placing his considered essays somewhere more prominent than comment #83 on a marginally related RealClimate post!

I will add In It For the Gold to the sidebar shortly...

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Sunday, April 01, 2007

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Recent Inactivity

Just a quick note to let people know that I am overseas on business and have been for about a week so things will be quiet here for another month. That was planned of course, but not planned was getting my appendix taken out last Wednesday night.

I think that should excuse me from being so late addressing some of the recent comments...!

Will get HET's news roundup posted ASAP and hopefully can read RC's latest four posts.

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Monday, December 25, 2006

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Tis the Season

Merry Christmas to all!
Happy Hanukkah!
Feliz Navidad!
Happy Holidays!
Joyeux Noel!
Merry Festivus!

However you prefer it said, all the best wishes of the season to the denizens of this corner of the blogosphere...

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Friday, December 15, 2006

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Blogger Beta

A quick note to subscribers: I just switched to Blogger beta and it may be that old articles show up in your RSS client as new. At least, a handful did in my Goggle Reader view.

Don't be fooled!

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Thursday, November 30, 2006

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My Recent Absence

Gentle Readers,

I apologize for not keeping up with blogging, both posts and responding to comments, as well as participation elsewhere.

My partner of the last 17 years died at 4:00AM, November 26, 2006. It was a long time coming but the end was thankfully pain free and at home.

I don't think I will be doing anything here for a few more days.

[update: thanks to all for the comments]

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Monday, October 23, 2006

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New Guides by Category Coming

[Update]

Welcome to Crooks and Liars readers! I fear this is a poor introductory page for my humble blog. What I am mostly about is providing succint, scientifically supported rebuttals to the numerous and generally spurious objections to the well founded scientific case for human caused climate change, aka anthropogenic global warming. The side bar link "How to Talk to a Sceptic" is where it started, the cross referenced index of the arguments below is a working draft, but very complete except for formatting, the site continues to be developed.

Thanks for visiting, I hope you find useful information here, comments welcome on old or new threads, suggestions appreciated!
[End update, original post follows]

David Roberts of the Grist environmental website recently invited me to reproduce the How to Talk to a Sceptic Guide, and otherwise contribute, to the Gristmill blog. I accepted and will begin doing so probably this week. I will keep things going here too though, it is kick seeing the visitor stats growing (ok, not exactly Google numbers, but good enough for me!)

As well as being able to reach more people at this critical time in the debate, I am taking advantage of the opportunity to revisit each article and more importantly to roll out a new and improved Guides by Category page. I also hope this will be the motivation I have been missing to fill in some holes, both from recent developments and old but overlooked standbys.

Included below is a draft of the categorization. I would appreciate feedback before I make it into a proper page with a short preamble and links to the earlier versions that will take the place of this link in the sidebar. I especially need more details in the Argument Sources section, it was an undeveloped add-on.

(I should note that I still have every intention of making the whole thing a wiki and adding other related resources. )

Guides by Categories

Categories are: Stages of Denial, Scientific Topics, Types of Argument, Levels of Sophistication, Argument Sources.




Stages of Denial

  1. There's nothing happening
    1. Inadequate Evidence
    2. Contradictory Evidence
    3. No Consensus

  2. We Don't Know Why It's Happening
    1. Models Don't Work
    2. Prediction is Impossible
    3. We Can't Be Sure


  3. Climate Change is Natural
    1. It Happened Before

    2. It's Part of a Natural Change

    3. It's Not Caused By CO2

  4. Climate Change is Not Bad
    1. The Effects are Good
    2. The Effects are Minor
    3. Change is Normal
  5. Climate Change Can't be Stopped
    1. Too Late
    2. It's Someone Else's Problem
    3. Economically Infeasible

Scientific Topics

  1. Temperature

  2. Atmosphere

  3. Extreme Events


    1. Temperature Records


    2. Storms

    3. Droughts


  4. Cryosphere


    1. Glaciers


    2. Sea Ice


    3. Ice Sheets



  5. Oceans


  6. Modeling


    1. Scenarios


    2. Uncertainties



  7. Climate Forcings


    1. Solar Influences


    2. Greenhouse Gases


    3. Aerosols



  8. Paleo Climate


    1. Holocene


    2. Ice Ages


    3. Geologic History



  9. Scientific Process





Types of Argument





  1. Uninformed


  2. Misinformed


  3. Cherry Picking


  4. Urban Myths


  5. FUD


  6. Non Scientific


  7. Underdog Theories

  8. Crackpottery





Levels of Sophistication





  1. Silly


  2. Naive


  3. Specious


  4. Scientific





Argument Sources





  1. CO2 Science

  2. Junkscience

  3. Competitive Enterprise Institute

  4. Wall Street Journal

  5. Patrick Michaels


  6. Richard Lindzen


  7. Bob Carter


  8. Bill Gray

  9. Tim Ball

  10. James Inhofe


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Tuesday, October 10, 2006

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1000 Pictures

If a picture is worth 1000 words, just imagine the value of 1000 pictures....

Well, thanks to a website called Global Warming Art and the hard work of its creator, Robert A. Rohde, we don't need to just imagine. This site is a treasure trove of graphs, charts and photographs that bring the all too dry evidence of Climate Change to compelling life. [editor's note: 1000 is used as a rhetorical device, the actual number is somewhere between that and as high as I can count on all my fingers and toes combined].

Readers of A Few Things Ill Considered, or many other climate discussion forums, may recognize many of the images as they appear in many frequently referenced Wikipedia articles. All of my favorites can be found at www.globalwarmingart.com plus many more.

I'm a bit slow off the mark, the site was unveiled some months ago, but regardless, thanks to Robert for this valuable resource and for showing what raw data can become in the hands of an artist!

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Sunday, October 08, 2006

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New Weekly Feature

As an effort to save a baby from some bathwater, I have asked Harvey E. Taylor for permission to reproduce his weekly Global Warming News Roundup (that's the baby) that he posts regularily to usenet's sci.environment (that'd be the bathwater). As he has kindly agreed, I am pleased to announce that starting this week, A Few Things Ill Considered will be posting HET's lengthy summary of the week's Global Warming news.

There is probably more material each week than anyone out there will be able to read, but at least scanning the headlines will keep you up to date on what is new and important in the science, politics, and blogosphere of Global Warming.

Enjoy!

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Monday, September 18, 2006

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The Great Warming

There is an interesting looking documentary on Global Warming due for release soon in the US, in time for the November elections. It is called The Great Warming, and looks like it will be quite good.
Via a comment here from Lisa T who is involved in the film:

The documentary was produced in Canada (shot partly in BC) and released in 2004 as a 3-part series on Discovery Canada and on Canal D in Quebec. There was a lot of clamour on the website for a US release, but the big networks told us "environment is too depressing for TV" (which may be one reason not much has improved here...). PBS ultimately released a short version last year called "Global Warming: The Signs + the Science".

THIS film is the culmination of all that, with a stronger activist voice, updated science content, inclusion of the faith-based green movement-- and a revisit of Louisiana, where every interviewee in 2002 predicted devastation on a Katrina scale. That part is infuriating, but worth seeing.

The website will give you a pretty good idea of the film (it's also gorgeously shot), and the link to the Call to Action coalition should go live Monday. If you like what you see, we'd appreciate anything you can do to spread the word - we don't have Al Gore's budget!

They don't have Al Gore's budget, but they do have Keanu Reeves and Alanis Morrisette!

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Friday, August 25, 2006

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Back From Australia

Well, as you may or may not have noticed, this blog has been pretty quiet, the last post being almost a month ago. That is not due to lack of interesting events, rather to my being away for a business trip in Australia. Tasmania to be more precise.

Now, while considering what to post next, a rather cheap shot from Roger Pielke Jr has given me that elusive motivation strong enough to overcome the inertia of the long silence.

So the subject of the post is the question I posed in the comments section of a recent Real Climate post.

Is it wrong to be pleased that the American people seem to have really awoken to the danger of Global Warming due to this summer's extreme heatwave and last year's hurricane season? The problem being that no individual storm can be directly attributed to global climate change and this summer's heat wave can't either and we will undoubtably still see some extreme cold snaps, record setting even, in the warming-or-not future.

Global Warming is a grave concern and large protions of the US public, being so susceptible to the accidental genius of the American propaganda machine, have long held its existence in doubt, believing there to be no conclusive scientific evidence yet available. This is not the reality. Now along comes a tremendous storm (not even so tremendous, Katrina was Category 3 at landfall) and suddenly people seem to believe Global Warming is here and now.

And this is the reality.

But Katrina was not proof of that, nor was this summer's heat wave. Not even the record warmth of 2005 can be claimed as "proof", proof does not exist in this kind of science, one must look at the balance of the evidence. So the public has come to believe in a reality through faulty reasoning.

Is it wrong to accept this state of affairs with gratitude? How hard should one try to stamp out that misconception, that Katrina is clear evidence that Global Warming is here? As I stated in my comment (link above), I would not say it, and will correct people who say it to me, but I don't feel any urge to go out of my way to stamp it out.

Is that wrong?

(An interesting article on distinguishing Hurricane Katrina from Catastrophe Katrina here.)

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Wednesday, June 14, 2006

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100,000 Page Views

Today or tomorrow A Few Things Ill Considered hits 100,000 page views! After about three weeks starting mid February, 2006 of being what it was designed for, a convenient place for me to keep my standard arguments handy for sci.environment threads, and with only a trickle of visitors, I was outed by RealClimate and things really took off. We currently average about 200 visitors and 700 page views per day (no, not google numbers but enough to get a good kick out of it!).

Notable and flattering mentions since then include:

and a bunch of the "in crowd" of blogs that discuss climate science, such as Stoat (the first one, thanks William, but does my abbreviation in your blogroll have to be "Ill"? : ), Deltoid, DesmogBlog, and quite a few others that I don't know or don't have time to read - or can't think of right now. The How to Talk to a Climate Sceptic guide comes up in blogs in at least 5 languages!

A Few Things Ill Considered continues to be very well placed strategically in the google searches, catching people looking for "global warming is a big hoax" or "hockey stick fraud" or "volcanoes emit more co2" or "global warming stopped in 1998" etc! (See here for a run down). I like to think a few souls have been saved!

Thanks for all who visit and especially those who comment, there have been some very good threads.

Guides, by Category

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Tuesday, May 30, 2006

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Cross Indexing Brainstorm

Development of the How to Talk to a Climate Sceptic guide is about to resume. I think I have so far covered most of the low hanging fruit that is out there, but there are clearly alot of arguments still to make against the swarm of objections still swirling, some silly but necessary, some a bit more sophisticated and indeed some with merit.

One thing stopping me at the moment is a concern that it is already a bit cumbersome to quickly find the needed rebuttal of the moment.

I like the "Guides by Category" well enough, but it is divided up too coarsely. There are also perhaps better ways to categorize things. But rather than trying to find the "best" way to subdivide topics I want to present as many different ways as feasible to chop it all up and let people chose their preference, perhaps using a different one depending on the target argument.

So this is a call for help. What works for you? How would you divide things up? Below are the categories and subcategories I have come up with so far so you can see what I mean.

Stages of Denial

  • We Don't Understand Climate
    • Prediction is Impossible
    • Climate is Chaotic
    • We Lack Certainty
    • There is no Consensus
  • The Climate Isn't Changing
    • There is Contradictory Evidence
    • There is Insufficient Evidence
  • Climate Change is Not Our Fault
    • CO2 is Not the Cause
    • It Has Happened Before
    • It's a Natural Change
  • Climate Change is Not Harmful
    • The Effects are Minor
    • The Effects Are Good
    • Change is Natural
  • Climate Change Can't Be Stopped
    • It's Too Late Now
    • It's Someone Else's Problem
    • It is Economically Infeasible

Scientific Topics

  • Atmosphere
  • Oceans
  • Temperature Change
  • Modeling
    • Uncertainties
    • Scenarios
  • Extreme Events
    • Hurricanes
    • Temperature Records
    • Droughts
  • Climate Forcings
    • Solar Influences
    • Greehouse Gases
    • Aerosols
  • Paleoclimate
    • Holocene
    • Ice Ages
    • Geologic History
  • Cryosphere
    • Ice Sheets
    • Sea Ice
    • Glaciers
    • Permafrost

Argument Types

  • Uniformed
  • Misinformed
  • Political
  • Economic
  • FUD
  • Dodges
  • Underdog Theories
  • Crackpottery
  • Strawmen
  • Cherry Picking

Levels of Sophistication

  • Silly
  • Naive
  • Specious
  • Technical


Argument Users

  • CO2 Science
  • Junk Science
  • John-Daly
  • Warwick Hughes
  • Bob Carter
  • Patrick Michaels
  • Michael Crichton
  • Richard Lindzen
  • Steve Milloy

    What is missing?

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      Wednesday, May 24, 2006

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      New Global Change Discussion Group

      As I mention in the introduction to the How to Talk to a Climate Sceptic guide, I cut my teeth in the climate change debate on sci.environment and alt.global-warming. Sadly, since I arrived there in around 11/04 the signal to noise ration has dropped dramatically and the cross posting to political groups and groups with rush limbaugh in their names are a constant stream. Consequently, the number of well informed active participants has dropped.

      Michael Tobis has taken some initiative in creating an alternate venue to save the baby while still chucking the bathwater. Here is the announcement in full, I hope it becomes a very active discussion venue.

      ANNOUNCING MODERATED GLOBAL CHANGE DISCUSSION FORUM

      • globalchange.googlegroups.com

      We are creating a moderated newsgroup/mailing list for the discussionof environmental science, economics, policy and politics, especially as related to global change issues such as climate change, biodiversity,and sustainability.

      The signal to noise ratio on sci.environment and similar unmoderated discussion lists has dropped to the point where it can no longer sustain interesting or informative exchanges of information and ideas.

      The success of the lightly moderated discussions on the realclimate.org blog has revealed that the hunger for serious and informed discussion remains. However, blogs do not fully replicate the broad-ranging conversational style that usenet once supported even in controversy-prone areas of interest.

      Fortunately, new tools allow us to recapture most of the usenet experience without going through the tedious and archaic process of setting up a "big-eight" newsgroup.

      It is difficult to specify what "fair" or "unfair" moderation meanswithout getting tediously legalistic. To avoid endless haggling aboutthis, we formulate our policy thus:

      • Posts will be admitted to the list if and only if ANY moderator finds the submission to be constructive and/or interesting, on topic, and not gratuitously rude.

      We are not unanimous in our opinions, and are open to submissions from people outside the spectrum of opinion represented by the moderators.

      We will endeavor to remove obvious provocations ("trolls"). We also discourage postings that are redundant, in the sense that the poster has already made their points and does not seem to take account of the responses but is merely insistently reasserting points previously made.

      Whether, as a consequence of this policy, you find the list useful and interesting or otherwise is left to yourself. If you don't like our list, by all means make your own.

      ==== HOW TO PARTICIPATE ====

      I. WEB INTERFACE

      Probably the easiest way to participate is to point your browser to

      and you can read the messages immediately. You may send submissions through the web interface, or by email to

      Using the interface in this way does not require you to get a Google login.

      "Membership" is encouraged, as it permits us to give individual participants an overall approval, reducing propagation delays and the workload of the moderators. Membership does not automatically implye mail delivery of messages. Non-members may also post but all their messages require moderation.

      II. RSS FEED

      It is also possible to subscribe to the newsgroup as an RSS feed. See

      for more information

      III. NNTP FEED

      We are in the process of setting up an NNTP feed through gmane. When it is available we will offer futher information.

      IV. MAILING LIST

      You can subscribe to globalchange as a mailing list, but you have to use the web to sign up. Go to

      and click "join this group" and follow instructions. To use this approach you will need to have or set up a free google login.

      If you subscribe to the email, you need not ever use the web interface or your google account again. You may send submissions by email to globalchange@googlegroups.com

      PLEASE PARTICIPATE!

      Looking forward to reviving the historically interesting and productive usenet-style conversations on environmental matters, we are, sincerely, your globalchange moderators:

      • James Annan
      • Raymond Arritt
      • Coby Beck
      • William Connolley
      • Michael Tobis

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      Monday, May 08, 2006

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      Active Threads

      I have not yet found a way to get a real listing of recent comments, so thought I would ust post this because there are a couple of active threads from old posts.

      http://illconsidered.blogspot.com/2006/02/kyoto-is-ineffective.html
      http://illconsidered.blogspot.com/2006/02/action-on-global-warming-is-suicide.html

      The economic ones are my least competent subects, maybe others can contribute better material...

      [Update]
      see here
      http://illconsidered.blogspot.com/2006/02/whats-wrong-with-warm-weather.html
      and here as well
      http://illconsidered.blogspot.com/2006/01/climate-is-always-changing.html

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      Friday, March 24, 2006

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      An Unforeseen Bonus

      One artifact, entirely unplanned, of the style I chose for the How to Talk to a Climate Sceptic guide is that I seem to be showing up in a number of web searches that have a definite "sceptic" odor about them! I guess by stating the denialism before debunking it some people who are probably trying to confirm their misconceptions are ending up here. Maybe a few souls saved from the Dark Side? :-)

      Some example search strings that show up in the referring URL's:

      I come up in a few regular searches:

      And there are a few rather funny searches that brought folks here:

      Anyway, reading this is probably like watching some one else's home videos, sorry! I still get a kick out of seeing how people find their way here.

      Vanity post over.

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      Saturday, November 05, 2005

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      Why Blog?

      There are basically three reasons I have decided to set this blog up. Firstly, I find myself spending a lot of time posting on Usenet, too much really, so I thought this could use up even more time! No, not really, I am hoping this will save time. Time I spend composing essentially the same thoughts repeatedly and time I spend searching via Google Groups for past postings so that I can be quicker at repeating myself. If I find a particular topic or thought compelling enough to repeat, perhaps turning it into a blog post will help refine it and provide an easier reference for myself and others who might be interested enough to click a link.

      Secondly, I think blogs are a great phenomenon, an exciting way to express ones' unique perspective and assert one's individuality.

      Thirdly, everyone else is doing it.

      The rest is about to become just more history. I hope you do not regret your time spent reading or, hopefully, posting comments here.

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