Update on Peiser

An update pertaining to my article on Benny Peiser's analysis of climate science. He had claimed he found 34 abstracts in the scientific mainstream that did not accept the consensus position that humans are causing rapid climate changes.

He is a frequent commenter on a science policy blog run by Roger Pielke Jr., Prometheus, that I sometimes try to keep up with. I challenged him directly about one particular abstract in the comments section of one post a couple of weeks ago and he made the following admission:

I accept that it was a mistake to include the abstract you mentioned (and some other rather ambiguous ones) in my critique of the Oreskes essay. It certainly deflected attention from my main criticism, i.e. that her claim of a unanimous consensus on AGW (as opposed to a majority consensus) is tenuous.

I suppose this is to his credit, but I would think he is obligated to go to a little more effort in correcting the false impression his "finding" created (at least among those already inclined this way). Also, despite the disintegration of this evidence, he still holds the same conclusion. There are certainly many other problems, see my article cited above, as well as the other "rather ambiguous" abstracts.

I wonder how many times this discredited (and now disavowed) bit of shoddy research will continue to be cited?

The Hockey Stick is Broken

(Part of the How to Talk to a Climate Sceptic guide)

This article has moved to ScienceBlogs

It has also been updated and this page is still here only to preserve the original comment thread. Please visit A Few Things Ill Considered there. You may also like to view Painting With Water, Coby Beck's original fine art photography.

The CO2 Rise Is Natural

(Part of the How to Talk to a Climate Sceptic guide)

This article has moved to ScienceBlogs

It has also been updated and this page is still here only to preserve the original comment thread. Please visit A Few Things Ill Considered there. You may also like to view Painting With Water, Coby Beck's original fine art photography.

An Unforeseen Bonus

One artifact, entirely unplanned, of the style I chose for the How to Talk to a Climate Sceptic guide is that I seem to be showing up in a number of web searches that have a definite "sceptic" odor about them! I guess by stating the denialism before debunking it some people who are probably trying to confirm their misconceptions are ending up here. Maybe a few souls saved from the Dark Side? :-)

Some example search strings that show up in the referring URL's:

• iris hypothesis 2006 (#3 on Google)
• global warming a hoax (11th hit on MSN search)
• big hoax global warming (6th hit on Google)
• antarctic ice sheet growing (top of page two on Google)
• what's wrong with warm weather (1st hit on Google)
• global warming skeptic blog (hit 4, head 'em off at the pass!)
• "global warming" and "theory first" (3rd hit on ninemsn.com.au)
• quotes global warming sceptics (hit 4 on Google)
• warming "undersea volcanos" arctic 2006 (4 on Google)
• Urban heat island (page 7 on Google, someone was digging deep)
• mars melting global warming (hit 3 on Google) <-- good one to get!
• climate hoax (someone dug all the way to page 12 on this google, but we finally got 'em!)
• volcanic vs human emissions (4 on Google)
• why is the climate always changing? (2 on Google)
• global warming debunk science 2006 (top of page 2, Google)
• global warming vikings green greenland (3rd Google)
• amount of H2O in air (4th, Google)
• global warming bullshit (4 on MSN, this searcher may be too far gone...)
• satellite data cooling (2nd from the top on Google, good catch)
• headlines global cooling 1970 (hit one, google!)
• warming of mars and pluto (3 on Google, another useful catch)
• arguments against global warming (5th on AOL search, good to get the AOLers!)
• greenland name originated from warmer climate (3 on Google)
• evidence global warming is not occuring (1st hit on search.MSN Ha!)

I come up in a few regular searches:

• holocene climatic optimum (hit 7, google)
• worlds co2 emissions (2nd on page two, Google)
• climatic optimum (top of page two, Google)
• how much co2 do volcanos emit (1st hit in Google)
• vineland vaikings (6th on Google)
• co2 volcanoes (2nd google page) and co2 from volcanos (1st on MSN)
• climate chaos theory (page 10, Google)
• canadian receeding[sic] glaciers (12th hit on Dogpile - misspelling was fixed but is still in the comment that pointed out my mistake!)

And there are a few rather funny searches that brought folks here:

• things that start with x in Russia (!? - sounds like one of those long road trip games)
• a few things (2nd hit on Google, and 1st on MSN, isn't that what we're all searching for?)
• what's with the warm weather (1st hit on Google)
• warm, warmer, warmest (page 6 on google.co.za - what was this person looking for?)
• things that evaporation hides (1st hit, Google)
• http://search.yahoo.com/search?p=www.exxonsecrets.com (first hit on Yahoo - note: misspelled in some comments here)
• wild grapes north america map and wild grapes map (both hit 1 on MSN search)
• a few things about ecosystems (hit 5 on Google)
• blogger wagga (!??)
• 3 things about tomorrow's weather (4th, google)
• cost of things in the 50's (2 on google)
• ill climates (3 on google, what was that about?)
• what history does (3rd on google)
• dwarf dwarf revolution (no. 7 from google, and we are worried about terrorists!)
• sceptic odor (#1 hit on Google - one of those freudian typos I think...)

Anyway, reading this is probably like watching some one else's home videos, sorry! I still get a kick out of seeing how people find their way here.

Vanity post over.

Jim Hansen on 60 Minutes

Via Crooks and Liars, the recent 60 minutes story on Global Warming and Jim Hansen can be seen here.

Very damning evidence of political interference, very good reporting.

Talk to a Sceptic Guides, by Category

The Ice Caps Will Melt Into the Aquifers

(Part of the How to Talk to a Climate Sceptic guide)

Objection:
Even if the ice caps melt, the sea level won't rise that much because the melt water will be absorbed in the aquifers underneath.

What can I say?.

Answer:
This is a ridiculous notion, both for making the assumption that no glaciologist or ice sheet expert or climatologist in general could not have thought of it themselves and for getting it so wrong that a minute adding up numbers could have saved some embarassment.

97% of the world's water is ocean, let's ignore it. 68.7% of the remaining fresh water is locked up in glaciers and ice caps, the vast majority in ice caps. 30% is currently groundwater. (See here.)

The total area of land on earth is about 148.3 million sq km. The antarctic is about 14 million, Greenland 2.2 million. So the portion of land under ice sheets is around 11% (easily googled)

So in short, for this theory (cough) to work we need one tenth of the land area on earth to absorb twice as much water as has been absorbed by all the other nine tenths together. It somehow does not seem to pass the sniff test.

Those calculation further assume that there is no ground water there already, which I don't know but I really doubt it. The bottom of the antarctic ice is only a couple of degrees below freezing due to geothermal heat and the insulating effect of thousands of metres of ice. Why wouldn't there be liquid water in the ground (which is bedrock btw)? And if it is too cold, why wouldn't any aquifers already be full of frozen water?

No, this theory is no Copernican Revolution, we should accept the calculations and warnings of the experts. If the greenland icesheet melts completely it will add ~7 metres, WAIS will add about 8 (it is already mostly below sealevel) the EAIS would add around 65m (see here)

Not that they will all melt anytime soon.

Other Guides, by Category

Global Warming Is Nothing New

(Part of the How to Talk to a Climate Sceptic guide)

This article has moved to ScienceBlogs

It has also been updated and this page is still here only to preserve the original comment thread. Please visit A Few Things Ill Considered there. You may also like to view Painting With Water, Coby Beck's original fine art photography.

Mauna Loa is a Volcano

(Part of the How to Talk to a Climate Sceptic guide)

This article has moved to ScienceBlogs

It has also been updated and this page is still here only to preserve the original comment thread. Please visit A Few Things Ill Considered there. You may also like to view Painting With Water, Coby Beck's original fine art photography.

Natural Emissions Dwarf Human's

(Part of the How to Talk to a Climate Sceptic guide)

This article has moved to ScienceBlogs

It has also been updated and this page is still here only to preserve the original comment thread. Please visit A Few Things Ill Considered there. You may also like to view Painting With Water, Coby Beck's original fine art photography.

Geological History Does not Support CO2's Importance

(Part of the How to Talk to a Climate Sceptic guide)

This article has moved to ScienceBlogs

It has also been updated and this page is still here only to preserve the original comment thread. Please visit A Few Things Ill Considered there. You may also like to view Painting With Water, Coby Beck's original fine art photography.

The Null Hypothesis Says it Natural

(Part of the How to Talk to a Climate Sceptic guide)

This article has moved to ScienceBlogs

It has also been updated and this page is still here only to preserve the original comment thread. Please visit A Few Things Ill Considered there. You may also like to view Painting With Water, Coby Beck's original fine art photography.

Satellites Show Cooling

(Part of the How to Talk to a Climate Sceptic guide)

This article has moved to ScienceBlogs

It has also been updated and this page is still here only to preserve the original comment thread. Please visit A Few Things Ill Considered there. You may also like to view Painting With Water, Coby Beck's original fine art photography.

Guides by Category

This article has moved to ScienceBlogs

It has also been updated and this page is still here only to preserve the original comment thread. Please visit A Few Things Ill Considered there. You may also like to view Painting With Water, Coby Beck's original fine art photography.

What About Peiser?

(Part of the How to Talk to a Climate Sceptic guide)

This article has moved to ScienceBlogs

It has also been updated and this page is still here only to preserve the original comment thread. Please visit A Few Things Ill Considered there. You may also like to view Painting With Water, Coby Beck's original fine art photography.

The Models are Unproven

(Part of the How to Talk to a Climate Sceptic guide)

This article has moved to ScienceBlogs

It has also been updated and this page is still here only to preserve the original comment thread. Please visit A Few Things Ill Considered there. You may also like to view Painting With Water, Coby Beck's original fine art photography.

Chaotic Systems are not Predictable

(Part of the How to Talk to a Climate Sceptic guide)

This article has moved to ScienceBlogs

It has also been updated and this page is still here only to preserve the original comment thread. Please visit A Few Things Ill Considered there. You may also like to view Painting With Water, Coby Beck's original fine art photography.

What About Mid-Century Cooling?

(Part of the How to Talk to a Climate Sceptic guide)

This article has moved to ScienceBlogs

It has also been updated and this page is still here only to preserve the original comment thread. Please visit A Few Things Ill Considered there. You may also like to view Painting With Water, Coby Beck's original fine art photography.

Vineland Was Full of Grapes

(Part of the How to Talk to a Climate Sceptic guide)

This article has moved to ScienceBlogs

It has also been updated and this page is still here only to preserve the original comment thread. Please visit A Few Things Ill Considered there. You may also like to view Painting With Water, Coby Beck's original fine art photography.

Greenland Used to be Green

(Part of the How to Talk to a Climate Sceptic guide)

This article has moved to ScienceBlogs

It has also been updated and this page is still here only to preserve the original comment thread. Please visit A Few Things Ill Considered there. You may also like to view Painting With Water, Coby Beck's original fine art photography.

We Can't Even Predict the Weather Next Week

(Part of the How to Talk to a Climate Sceptic guide)

This article has moved to ScienceBlogs

It has also been updated and this page is still here only to preserve the original comment thread. Please visit A Few Things Ill Considered there. You may also like to view Painting With Water, Coby Beck's original fine art photography.